The Baltic region is now supported by two strategic pillars: one in the North and one in Warsaw. In these turbulent times, Riga finds reassurance in knowing that if Latvia ever needs protection, its geographically closest allies are now treaty-bound to come to its aid.
“Two major developments have significantly strengthened Latvia’s security: its own accession to NATO and, more recently, the accession of Finland and Sweden to the Alliance.” This comparison was made by the former commander of the Latvian armed forces, Raimonds Graube (1999–2003, 2010–2017). Similarly, Latvia’s former defence minister, Imants Lieģis (2009–2010), remarked on the anniversary of Latvia’s accession to NATO – and on the eve of Finland and Sweden’s membership – that “never before in Latvia’s history have we been so secure as today”.
These statements reflect the monumental significance of Latvia’s northern neighbours joining the only credible counterweight to Russia’s revisionist ambitions in the post-Soviet space. By contributing to the development of a “deterrence-by-denial bubble”, the Baltic region is now supported by two strategic pillars: one in the North and one in Warsaw. In these turbulent times, Riga finds reassurance in knowing that if Latvia ever needs protection, its geographically closest allies are now treaty-bound to come to its aid.
Even before joining NATO, Sweden and Finland – along with other Nordic countries –were considered Latvia’s closest partners. Sweden, in particular, has played a crucial role in promoting democracy, good governance and economic development in Latvia since it regained independence in 1991. Like their Baltic neighbours the Lithuanians and Estonians, Latvians have increasingly identified with Northern Europe, viewing it as the only viable alternative to Eastern Europe – the so-called “bloodlands” weighed down by historical trauma and authoritarian legacies. This distinction is not merely geographic; it is deeply geopolitical. The North offers Latvia a forward-looking, values-based model for political alignment and lifestyle.
This sentiment was underscored in a July 2022 poll, where Sweden ranked as the sixth friendliest country toward Latvia, following Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, the United States, Ukraine and the United Kingdom. All of these countries are key partners in Latvia’s foreign and defence policy. Today, Sweden has become Latvia’s most important Nordic partner. Bilateral relations are expected to deepen further, especially following Sweden’s commitment to join NATO’s Forward Land Forces in Latvia. In early 2025, Sweden deployed a mechanized infantry battalion to the Ādaži Military Base – marking the first time Swedish troops have been stationed abroad since joining NATO. This deployment sends a strong political and military message, one that is certainly welcomed in Riga and undoubtedly noted by Russian military planners.
Sweden’s engagement in Latvia’s defence has also encouraged a stronger US presence in the region, which is an increasingly vital factor in today’s security environment. The 2024 Defence Cooperation Agreement between Sweden and the United States established the legal basis for US forces to operate on Swedish soil. As a result, the US now has access to 17 military sites in Sweden and 15 in Finland. As the researcher with the Center for Geopolitical Studies in Riga Daniels Kauliņš observes, “Although the US presence in the region is not explicitly aimed at defending the Baltic states, heightened American involvement bolsters the overall defence posture.”
Finland’s accession to NATO carries equal weight for Riga. Known for their quiet resolve and sauna culture, the Finns are deeply respected for their historical resilience under Russian pressure, despite sharing an extensive border with their powerful neighbour. Latvia works closely with Finland through the Joint Response Force, the Nordic Group, and other frameworks aimed at enhancing regional defence. In addition, Latvia draws inspiration from Helsinki’s experience in implementing a comprehensive national defence system and a conscription-based service model. Like Sweden, Finland offers a vision of a resilient, values-based society. This approach is likely to remain a cornerstone of Latvia’s long-term strategy for countering external threats.
The views and opinions in this text do not necessarily reflect those of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung.